Drew Calamaro ‘21
Satire Editor
On Wednesday, September 30, Professor David Koplow of Georgetown Law spoke with students about space law. Professor Koplow specializes in public international law and national security and is one of the world’s foremost experts on space law.
Pictured: Professor Koplow discussed Armageddon-like scenarios in space. Bruce Willis did not feature as a possible solution. Photo Courtesy of Drew Calamaro, ’21, law.georgtown.edu, and news.sky.com.
The main topic of Professor Koplow’s discussion was asteroid impacts. Professor Koplow said that we are little more prepared than the dinosaurs were for an asteroid impact. There is no way to prevent one, and our infrastructure is not set up to handle a serious impact. This is not an “out there”[1] concern—in 2013, a meteor exploded over the south-west Russian town of Chelyabinsk. It was fifteen-to-twenty meters across and exploded about fifteen miles up in the air. The explosion was the equivalent of 400 to 500 kilotons of TN—twenty-to-thirty times more powerful than the nuclear weapon detonated at Hiroshima. The blast wave knocked down hundreds of buildings and the debris injured hundreds of people. Many Russians thought it was an American ICBM attack.
Although the damage from the 2013 meteor explosion was minimal, it serves as a warning of what could happen if an asteroid were to impact Earth in a more populated region. Every day, around 100 tons of asteroid dust accrue on Earth from upper atmosphere explosions and other extraterrestrial objects hitting Earth. There are also near-misses all of the time when it comes to asteroids.
There are, however, groups that were formed to start preparing for an asteroid impact. The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG—pronounced “same page”) was formed by the UN in part to combat near-Earth objects like asteroids. However, the options available to the international community are limited. They amount to either using an explosive to break apart the asteroid or detonating an explosive next to the asteroid to knock it off course. The first option is undesirable, as the asteroid would, in theory, break up into smaller asteroids, some of which would still hit Earth.
The second option—exploding something next to the asteroid—would heat molecules on its surface to the point where the molecules radiate away, allowing for the asteroid to get knocked off course by the energy of the radiation. Knocking an asteroid off-course may have disastrous results, however, because it may still hit another country.
But fear not—there is a tort regime in place for these scenarios and other space law subjects. Professor Koplow says there are two rules. First, if my spacecraft damages your spacecraft, and I am at fault, then I am liable. Second, you have absolute liability for harms done to the surface of the Earth, given the ultrahazardous nature of space.
What if you are Bruce Willis trying to save the planet in Armageddon and you need to do whatever is necessary to save humanity, including nudge an asteroid so that it hits a country?[2] If there are treaties in place that prevent this, the UN Security Council (UNSC) could, in theory, supersede those treaties by making its own law. Professor Kaplow proposes that the UNSC draft a law that allows countries to do what is necessary to save humanity, thus superseding any treaties that might impede a Bruce Willis mission.
One attendee asked about international cooperation and its prevalence in space. Professor Kaplow responded by reiterating that international cooperation is a unique aspect of space, despite some rivalry and potential armed conflict. Russia, for instance, launches missions to the International Space Station for the United States. The Soviet Union and the United States cooperated with one another during the Cold War.
Another attendee asked about space terrorism. Could you make something in space hit Earth or your enemy? We don’t have the technology, but Bruce Willis is on the case. What would be the preferred technology for preventing an asteroid from hitting Earth? It may be useful to have nuclear arms in orbit for nudging an asteroid out of orbit. You can often anticipate an asteroid’s trajectory, and, using the nuclear weapons you can adjust an asteroid’s orbit so that it doesn’t hit Earth. However, the nuclear nonproliferation treaty may prevent any collaboration between countries in this area.
At the moment, the United States is by far the leading actor in planetary defense. NASA is the leader in tracking asteroids. Other countries such as Japan have sophisticated programs which collect samples from asteroids. For anyone interested in forwarding United States interests in space, or just space law in general, Professor Kaplow suggests reaching out to experts, reading treatises regarding space law, and visiting NASA’s website, which hosts relevant laws and regulations.
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dac6jk@virginia.edu