Mason Pazhwak ‘23
Events Editor
Twenty-three million people in Afghanistan, more than half of its population, are facing “extreme levels of hunger” according to the World Food Program, while 98 percent lack enough food to eat.[1] These alarming numbers represent another dark chapter for a country that has already been devastated by decades of war and instability, stunting the ability of many to meet their most basic needs.[2] Now people are being pushed from deep vulnerability to the brink of calamity as they try to survive the country’s brutally cold winter weather.[3] Desperation comes with this kind of extreme poverty, with some families selling what little material wealth they have accumulated at a deep discount, if they are lucky enough to have any at all, while others have been put at the mercy of predatory individuals who seek to take advantage of the misery by purchasing brides.[4] Millions have already begun to flee in search of a chance to survive, sparking another vast migration crisis, the effects of which will reverberate far beyond Afghanistan’s borders.[5] Millions more will face the effects of extreme hunger, with countless children, who are particularly vulnerable, facing the emotional and developmental consequences of malnutrition.[6] Finally, millions may die as a direct or indirect result of this catastrophe, representing one of the greatest humanitarian disasters of our time.[7]
Several factors have contributed to this crisis, with the disruption of war, destruction of infrastructure, systematic corruption, a protracted drought, and long-term poor economic conditions all playing roles in the current predicament.[8] However, perhaps the most significant factor has been the nature of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and policy decisions made in the immediate aftermath. The completely unexpected, rapid collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government at the hands of the Taliban, as the U.S. withdrew, saw the long-time U.S. enemy assert unilateral control over the country.[9] This led policymakers to apply longstanding sanctions against the Taliban to large parts of the Afghan economy, with Afghanistan’s banking system losing access to $7 billion in foreign government reserves needed to maintain currency liquidity and many international banks ceasing any interactions due to the stiff consequences of a violation.[10] This caused the banking system to seize up, depriving millions of their deposits and bringing economic activity to a halt.[11] This was combined with the almost instantaneous cutoff of the substantial foreign aid that was a cornerstone of the Afghan economy that funded the vast majority of public expenditures, including the country’s healthcare system.[12] This one-two punch had completely foreseeable, far-reaching consequences, with the economy now teetering on the brink of collapse.[13] The U.S. has since tried to make humanitarian sanction exemptions to ease the flow of relief into the country, as well as commit some funds to help with the aid, but much broader action is needed to avert a disaster.[14]
I understand the difficulty faced by U.S. policymakers in approaching the issue of the Taliban gaining access to resources and legitimacy if sanctions were eased and aid was increased. The group was warned of the consequences of seizing unilateral control, including a cutoff of aid, yet did so anyway, showing a disregard for the impact it would have on the Afghan people.[15] They also remain a deeply uncompromising group that behaves in ways that violate international norms in areas such as women’s rights, and they should rightly be challenged for their abuses.[16] However, U.S. sanctions as they are applied now are a wrecking ball to Afghan society, punishing so many more people than the Taliban that they have become unduly cruel and harmful. In addition, the Taliban is a group which withstood twenty years of concerted effort by the international community, led by the most powerful military in the world, to destroy them. I find it highly unlikely that economic sanctions, which generally tend to have uneven effects everywhere they are applied, will impact their decision-making in a significant way.[17] Instead, the outcome we are seeing is mass starvation for the civilian population with few indications of concession. In addition, the U.S. has a special duty to the Afghan people irrespective of the government in power. The Afghan people were made to rely on the aid we provided, and many believed in the stability of the system we built there. I am sure that if they had understood it would collapse so quickly, they would have taken steps to prepare themselves for the transition. Instead, they had faith in the competence of an American foreign policy and that the U.S. would not pull the rug out from under them. But instead, they have been rewarded by being literally and figuratively left out in the cold. A responsible U.S. drawdown, if it expected an eventual Taliban victory, would have slowly weaned the people off aid, created a banking system not so tied to ours so as to be completely debilitated by sanctions, and occurred in the spring so that people might have had a growing season to prepare for winter. Even if U.S. policymakers did not anticipate a Taliban victory that would necessitate building in an adjustment period, they nevertheless should have used targeted (as opposed to broad) sanctions and maintained public sector aid at least through the winter. Yes, the Taliban may have benefited from this, and it would have rewarded their bad behavior to some extent, but there would have been ample time to increase pressure later. The immediate goal of preservation of life would have been worth the cost.
President Biden ran on a platform of empathy and good judgment in American foreign relations, yet Afghanistan seems to be worthy of little compassion from his administration.[18] It is not too late, however, and U.S. investment could still help stabilize and preserve innocent Afghan lives.[19] Whatever our future engagement with the country, our legacy, after twenty years of sacrifice by countless American Soldiers, diplomats, and civilians, cannot be the disaster that is occurring. To allow that would be morally damaging and would plant the seeds of future instability in Afghanistan that, based on our recent history, we should well understand the danger of.
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mwp8kk@virginia.edu
[1] Hannah Bloch, For Many Afghans, Winter is Forcing a Cruel Choice of Whether to Eat or Stay Warm, NPR (Jan. 6, 2022), https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/01/06/1069872384/for-many-afghans-winter-is-forcing-a-cruel-choice-of-whether-to-eat-or-stay-warm.
[2] Id.
[3] Id.
[4] See Christina Goldbaum, Afghan Economy Nears Collapse as Pressure Builds to Ease U.S. Sanctions, N.Y. Times (Nov. 27, 2021), https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/27/world/asia/afghanistan-economy-collapse-sanctions.html. Associated Press, Parents selling children shows desperation in Afghanistan, NPR (Dec. 31, 2021), https://www.npr.org/2021/12/31/1069428211/parents-selling-children-shows-desperation-in-afghanistan.
[5] Christina Goldbaum & Yaqoob Akbary, Over a Million Flee as Afghanistan’s Economy Collapses, N.Y. Times (Feb. 2, 2022), https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/world/asia/afghanistan-migration-refugees.html.
[6] Murteza Khaliqi, Afghan children face death from malnutrition without intervention, advocates warn, NBC News (Oct. 15, 2021), https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/afghan-children-face-death-malnutrition-intervention-advocates-warn-rcna3069.
[7] Id.
[8] Goldbaum, supra note 4.
[9] See Amanda Macias, Secretary of State Blinken calls Taliban ‘the de facto government of Afghanistan’, CNBC (Sept. 13, 2021), https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/secretary-of-state-blinken-calls-taliban-the-de-facto-government-of-afghanistan.html.
[10] Explaining US Sanctions Against Taliban, VOA (Feb. 5, 2022), https://www.voanews.com/a/ready-explaining-us-sanctions-against-taliban-/6427771.html; Ellen Ioanes, US policy is fueling Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis, Vox (Jan. 22, 2022), https://www.vox.com/2022/1/22/22896235/afghanistan-poverty-famine-winter-humanitarian-crisis-sanctions.
[11] Id.
[12] Id.
[13] Id.
[14] Id.
[15] Jabob Knutson, U.S. envoy warns Taliban of global cutoff if Afghanistan taken by force, Axios (Aug. 10, 2021), https://www.axios.com/afghanistan-taliban-global-cutoff-afghanistan-force-6bbb638b-d7d0-45d4-a8d6-8e569f7182c9.html.
[16] See Lindsay Maizland, The Taliban in Afghanistan, CFR (Sept. 15, 2021), https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/taliban-afghanistan.
[17] See Jonathan Marcus, Analysis: Do economic sanctions work?, BBC News (July 26, 2010), https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-10742109.
[18] See Peter Baker, Biden Ran on Competence and Empathy. Afghanistan Is Testing That., N.Y Times (Aug. 20, 2021), https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/21/us/politics/biden-afghanistan-withdrawal.html.
[19] See Ruby Mellen & Julia Ledur, Afghanistan faces widespread hunger amid worsening humanitarian crisis, Wash. Post (Jan. 24, 2022), https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/24/afghanistan-humanitarian-crisis-hunger/.